DDR6 is coming, with frequencies impacting 21GHz

2024-04-17

PC DRAM technology is expected to achieve an effective bandwidth of 47 GB/s in the near future.

DDR5 memory has just become mainstream, and the JEDEC organization has already begun preparations for the establishment of the next generation standard DDR6, and has disclosed some prospects for specifications.

DDR6 RAM modules will undergo significant internal changes to achieve unprecedented speeds. According to a recent leaked presentation by RAM controller manufacturer Synopsys, DDR6 will debut with 8.8 Gbps modules and may ultimately reach 17,600 MT/s, potentially expanding to the theoretical limit of 21,000 MT/s.

The fastest DDR5 desktop modules currently available on the market offer a data rate of 8,400 MT/s (DDR5-8400), and faster modules are expected to be introduced in the future. A JEDEC presentation shared by Twitter user "Darkmont" confirms that the organization is developing DDR6, but still needs to choose between PAM or NRZ signal modes.

DDR6 chips operate differently from previous generations, with each module using dual 12-bit data channels instead of the traditional 16-bit channels. Although the data channels will be shorter, DDR6 modules will be faster, and a single DDR6-17600 module may achieve an effective bandwidth of 47 GB per second.

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JEDEC expects to complete the preliminary draft of the DDR6 memory standard within this year, and the 1.0 official version will be available at the earliest around the second quarter of 2025.The first definitive DDR6 JEDEC standard is expected to be released in the second half of 2025, including LPDDR6 for portable systems. The LPDDR5 standard has been out for five years now, and it is anticipated that the next generation of low-power PC memory will be slower than the RAM modules designed for desktop computers.

As manufacturers and chip makers strive to enhance performance in a world filled with complex digital products and data-intensive AI workloads, the traditional PC hardware paradigm is undergoing significant changes. Although GDDR6 and GDDR6X video memory chips have much faster data rates than DDR modules, DDR6 can still significantly improve system performance.

Even though the DDR6 standard may be finalized next year, PC manufacturers and makers may have to wait for a while to adopt the new technology. Intel is usually more willing to update its CPU platform earlier than AMD, but the future Arrow Lake and Panther Lake architectures may continue to use DDR5 modules.

Montage Technology: DDR5 Third-Generation RCD Chip Expected to Ship in Volume in the Second Half of the Year

Recently, Montage Technology stated during institutional research that with the continuous penetration of DDR5 downstream, it is expected that the company's shipments of DDR5 second and third-generation RCD chips will significantly increase compared to the previous year in 2024. Among them, the shipments of DDR5 second-generation RCD chips are expected to exceed the first-generation products in the first half of 2024, and the DDR5 third-generation RCD chips are expected to start shipping in volume from the second half of 2024.

In addition, Montage Technology said that starting from this year, the company's new high-performance "transport" chip products will gradually increase in volume, including PCIe 5.0 Retimer chips, MRCD/MDB chips, CKD chips, and MXC chips, etc. These new products involve cutting-edge industry technologies and will benefit from the AI industry trend. Montage leads globally in the aforementioned related fields and is expected to achieve a high gross profit margin level. The gradual increase in new products will have a positive impact on the company's performance in the next two years. Benefiting from the AI industry trend's promotion of demand for related products, as of April 22, 2024, the company expects the total order amount for PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD chips to be delivered in the second quarter of 2024 to exceed RMB 90 million, and the aforementioned three AI high-performance "transport" chips show a good growth trend.

Regarding the domestic market, according to the information currently fed back from the industry, the demand for PCIe Retimer chips is growing rapidly. Due to factors such as the limitations of individual GPU computing power, to deploy an AI server cluster with the same computing power, more GPUs or AI chips need to be configured, thus requiring more PCIe Retimer chips. In the new AI server procurement projects of domestic cloud computing/Internet manufacturers, Montage's PCIe Retimer chips are more favored by customers due to the advantages of product performance and local service support. At the same time, Montage has also successfully entered the AI server procurement projects of mainstream overseas cloud computing/Internet manufacturers. With the continuous advancement of new projects, the company's PCIe Retimer chip business shows a good growth trend.

According to public information, there are currently mainly two companies globally mass-producing PCIe 5.0 Retimer chips, in addition to Montage, the other is Astera Labs, which currently holds an important share in the PCIe Retimer chip market. Montage Technology's PCIe Retimer chips are gaining more and more recognition from customers and downstream users. Benefiting from the penetration of the PCIe 5.0 ecosystem, the increase in demand for AI servers, and the improvement of market share, this product will contribute to new performance growth points for the company in the next few years.Chinese Taiwan Memory Manufacturers Hope DDR4 Can Help Growth in 2024

DDR4 is expected to enter the mature stage of its life cycle this year, leading to an increase in sales volume and prices. As a result, industry insiders believe that memory manufacturers and fabless companies in Chinese Taiwan are paying more attention to this market. The market is concerned that Korean manufacturers will discontinue outdated DDR3 products when they refocus their production efforts.

According to industry insiders, the transition from DDR3 to DDR4 has already begun, and Chinese Taiwan memory manufacturers will prioritize DDR4 starting in 2024 to increase revenue. The combination of shipment volume and average selling price (ASP) will help their growth this year.

Sources say that although DRAM contract prices are steadily rising, the price increase for niche market DDR3 in the first half of 2024 is still quite moderate.

Chinese Taiwan memory companies such as Nanya Technology, Winbond Electronics, and ESMT (Everspin Semiconductor) are still in a loss-making state in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, the loss of ESMT, a niche memory IC design company, was about 57.96 million New Taiwan dollars (1.79 million US dollars). This is a significant improvement compared to the loss of 590 million New Taiwan dollars in the previous quarter and 370 million New Taiwan dollars in the same period last year.

ESMT is also aware that in 2024, Chinese Taiwan manufacturers will gain new development prospects from DDR4, as the world's major memory suppliers are mainly focused on DDR5 or HBM memory. Memory products are updated every two to three years.

Currently, DDR4 is approaching the transition phase from DDR3 and is expected to drive an increase in prices and sales volume. According to ESMT's forecast, shipments will soar significantly, and the average selling price of chips will also rise.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the net loss of Nanya, a dedicated DRAM chip manufacturer, has significantly improved in the first quarter of 2024. The company also expects a double-digit increase in ASP in the second quarter.

Winbond Electronics, a dedicated DRAM and flash memory manufacturer, announced an operating loss in the first quarter of 2024, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 464 million New Taiwan dollars, and a loss per share of 0.11 New Taiwan dollars.

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